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New population forecast shows slower shrinkage and stronger urban development
The population decline in Hesse is proceeding more slowly than previously assumed, while the concentration of population in urban areas and the southern half of the state is accelerating. This is the conclusion of a new population forecast , which now serves as an important basis for state planning and political decisions.
The calculations are based on the results of the 2022 census . According to these results, Hesse's population will initially continue to rise 6.27 million growth to approximately 6.35 million people expected 2033 1.3 percent . Subsequently, the population is projected to to around 6.17 million 2060 (a decrease of 2.8 percent ). This long-term decline will therefore begin later and be less pronounced than in previous forecasts.
Immigration and aging shape the development
Immigration plays a key role . From 2030 22,000 immigrants are expected annually – a figure above the long-term average. At the same time, the population continues to age: By 2060, life expectancy projected to rise to 87.2 years for women and 83.5 years for men , further narrowing the gap.
The change is particularly evident in the working-age population . The proportion of 20- to 60-year-olds is falling from the current 52 percent to approximately 47 percent , which corresponds to a decrease of around 348,000 people .
Fewer workers pose a challenge.
Minister of Economic Affairs Kaweh Mansoori described this development as a major challenge:
"Even with increasing labor force participation, fewer workers will be available in the future."
To counteract this, the state government is focusing on better utilizing the potential of older employees , increasing female labor force participation , and expanding childcare . At the same time, it is investing heavily in school and vocational training .
Cities continue to grow – housing remains a key issue
The ongoing trend towards re-urbanization ensures that larger cities in metropolitan areas continue to grow. "The influx of people into cities remains unabated ," says Mansoori. Providing affordable housing therefore remains one of the key challenges.
With the amendment to the Hessian Building Code and the new Vacancy Act , important steps have already been taken to mobilize additional living space. Furthermore, an expert commission on innovation in construction on further measures to meet the long-term needs of a growing urban population.
(RED/PM)
